thể loại/loại hình cờ bạc_đánh bạc online kiếm tiền_game đánh bài ăn tiền thật Book and Weblog - Authored by Garth Turner Thu, 05 Jul 2018 20:10:02 +0000 en-US hourly 1 The CBers /c02/2018/07/05/the-cbers/#comments Thu, 05 Jul 2018 20:10:02 +0000 /c02/?p=14194

Shocking as it may be to the economists populating this blog*s demented comment section, CBs know what they*re doing. It was central bank actions which stopped a financial crisis from becoming a depression ten years ago. Since then these dudes have 每 despite profligate, misguided politicians and quixotic, volatile voters 每 brought us to this point. The world is growing again. Inflation*s back. Companies are making big coin. Europe survived. We crept to the edge, were pulled back, and survived.

The bankers did it by dropping rates, adding massive stimulus, flooding the world with credit, restructuring debts and coordinating monetary policy. Yeah, low rates brought big borrowing and inflated assets (like houses in Toronto), but debt-snorfling buyers were equally to blame.

The bottom line: it worked. Now we*re on the other side. Rates, inflation, profits and growth up. Borrowing and asset values down. Despite the run-up in debt of all kinds (and Trump), there is no crash on the horizon and no depression. Not even a recession. Those sitting in cash will once again fall behind. You should be fully invested 每 but keep it balanced and diversified.

By the way, do you know what a central bank is? What*s in the vault?

The Bank of Canada came into being almost a century ago (1935) when the world was struggling to shrug off a depression which threw 30% of workers onto the street. The need to try and organize the economy better was obvious, since politicians had royally screwed things up (with a trade war, ironically).

So our central bank is a publicly-owned Crown corporation and operates (thank God) independently from Parliament. It issues the only legal money (other than Canadian Tire, of course), sets interest rates and has a mandate of stabilizing the currency, moderating inflation and supporting the economy. Yes, just like this blog.

Lately our CB has been trying to wean people off the cheap mortgage and LOC rates that turned crap houses into million-dollar mansions and pickled the entire nation in debt. It*s a slow process. Move too fast, jack rates too much, and things slide. Go too slow or fall out of step with the Fed (the American CB) and inflation roars as the dollar swoons. Nonetheless, interest rates will be normalized even if many over-extended families are squished in the process. C*est la vie. You were warned.

By the way, what*s in our central bank? What do we own?

The Bank of Canada*s assets are called &reserves* and comprise a bunch of stuff 每 some tangible assets, some on loan to the chartered banks plus credits with other CBs. These reserves are the things which (along with the government*s power to tax) actually back our currency. Long ago when men were men, shaved in streams, had callouses and no Netflix, central banks kept piles of rocks (gold) in order to give paper money value. But that ended decades ago. In fact, our CB now holds no gold whatsoever, having sold the last of it three years ago.

Currently the Bank of Canada is sitting on just over $91 billion, or $69.3 billion US. Two-thirds of that amount is held in American dollars, ($47.5 billion), with the rest in Euros ($14 billion), Sterling ($7 billion) and yen ($1 billion). As mentioned, gold = zero.

How do we rank in the world?

Not bad. Canada has the 38th biggest population on the planet, yet the Bank of Canada is No. 28 when it comes to reserves. Compare that to the US 每 whose central bank ranks 21st in terms of assets 每 despite America being the third most-populous place with the loudest leader.

Number one? By an incredible margin, it*s China 每 sitting on over $3 trillion in CB assets. But the real winner? Switzerland, baby. The little spec of a place is the 98th biggest country and yet has a central bank stuffed with $757 billion US worth of assets 每 ten times our level 每 and number three in the globe. No hat, big cattle.

Lessons: these guys have a massive influence on the world economy and without central banks we*d be spending every weekend gathering firewood and stalking moose (which is hard in the GTA). There*s a global CB push to normalize interest rates. You cannot resist. So get ready. And if those in control of your money think gold is a useless possession, so should you.

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What’s precious /c02/2018/07/04/whats-precious/#comments Wed, 04 Jul 2018 20:02:50 +0000 /c02/?p=14190

Someone mentioned recently this is an excellent blog to suicide by. That caught my attention. Have things been a little too dark here lately?

Perhaps. But don*t blame me. I didn*t invent FOMO, Trump, Dippers or moister house lust. This site is just a slice of rolling history reflecting society and tempered (of course) with canines. If people are weird, vacuous or hormonal, well, it*s recorded. It would be hard to make up the stuff that*s happened lately. So deal with it, or leave and watch Global News.

Having said that, there is hope for humanity. Not everyone has stepped off the debt ledge into the abyss of stuff. Some young people understand it*s all a trap. First they make you crave things. Then they make them unattainable. The only way to bridge is by borrowing more money than your parents could ever fathom at your age 每 setting up a dismal path for the rest of your working years. But wait. This is getting depressing again.

Time to bring in Wilf, a blog dog who has learned well. Good boy, Wilf.

In a recent blog post you wrote that ※nobody corresponds with me because they*re okay.§ That seems like a pretty sad state of affairs, so I thought I*d change that.

I haven*t been reading your blog for as long as some, but it*s still been a couple of years. It was my wife who got me hooked, so right off the bat you can tell that we aren*t your classic ※Mars and Venus§ case. We*re in our late 30s, two kids, and rent a nice place in downtown Toronto. For years we watched as home ownership got more and more expensive, but managed to resist (barely) the siren song. Instead, I worked while she went to med school, and we used my earnings to keep loans minimal. While her classmates bought new cars and took vacations, we drove our clunker, stayed home, and paid off debt. When the clunker died, we bought our next car with cash (that was before we read your blog and learned why leasing was better, but nobody*s perfect).

As a result we*re 100% debt free. We save a big chunk every month (which goes into registered accounts invested in diversified ETFs with a 60/40 split), plus my wife has a nice defined-benefit HOOPP pension. Yes, we sometimes feel house lust, but we long ago realized that the stresses of home ownership would make us less?happy, not more. And why would you pay a huge chunk of our net worth to be less happy?! It would be madness.

Perhaps one day we*ll buy, but right now, with our finances in order, we*re on the precipice of splurging on something that actually will make us more happy: a part-time housekeeper. Less time doing chores means more time for everything else, and time is what*s really precious.

Thanks for all the advice! Sincerely, Wilf.

So here is the question: what defines success?

The correct answer: that which brings you happiness, pleasure, joy or (especially) contentment.

These days society has been telling its young what they should be happy about (owning real estate) even when that is inextricably, firmly linked to so much that*s unpleasant. Mortgage debt. Property taxes. Insurance, maintenance, fees, repairs, utilities. Plus the stress of rising interest rates or a falling housing market. If kids arrive or a marriage fails, being tethered to big fixed costs and a massive borrowing becomes more complex, costly. A job loss can be devastating in a special way only the mortgaged can understand. And almost all young homeowners have zero net worth outside those walls. No diversification. No balance. No liquidity. No safety net.

How, exactly, can this make you content? Or enjoy time? Or savour every fleeting month of your youth?

Nah, the goal of life isn*t a house. It*s liberty, health and the cash to make the most of them. Never surrender your freedom, nor trade it cheaply for some dirt and some debt. Years later you*ll understand what a Faustian foul-up that was.

Wilf and his young doc wife are buying help, not a house. In essence, it*s a purchase of time.

Envy them.

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The crisis /c02/2018/07/03/the-crisis-2/#comments Tue, 03 Jul 2018 20:17:32 +0000 /c02/?p=14188

Oops. ※Homeownership costs reached their highest levels on record in the first quarter of 2018 〞 considered by many as crisis levels,§ said the nation*s largest bank on Tuesday. ※While the situation isn*t as extreme as it is in Vancouver, Victoria continued to experience marked deterioration in affordability in the first quarter.§

Ah yes. Affordability. It*s all that matters when it comes to real estate. If people can*t afford houses, they don*t buy. Like in BC*s capital city where, as the bankers rightly observed, house lust has gone flaccid. The tally for June: sales down 29.7% year/year. Listings up 35.5%. Not good. Prices to follow.

The issues now are clear: trade uncertainty and Trumpophobia; crazed Dipper taxation (BC only); plus rising interest rates (the biggie).

This week all the major guys are lining up to warn you off buying property. RBC*s Research Dept is stark about what comes next. Scotiabank economists are bordering on shrill. And the market odds for a rate hike next week have rebounded to a convincing 85%. ※Our view is that the Bank of Canada will proceed with a series of rate hikes that will raise its overnight rate from 1.25% currently to 2.25% in the first half of 2019. This would have the potential to stress housing affordability significantly,§ says the Royal.

Adds Scotia:

※The Bank of Canada is still forecast to raise its policy rate five more times between now and the end of 2019 including twice more this year. The Federal Reserve is forecast to raise the fed funds target range four more times by the end of 2019 including the addition of one more forecast rate hike this year to two more by the end of 2018.§

In practical terms, here*s what to expect: the first immediate increase will be next Wednesday. The next will be September 5th or (more likely) October 24th. Then 2019 will bring three more increases, one in the winter, one in the spring and another in the final half. The prime rate at the banks, currently 3.45% will climb to 4.7%. Home equity LOCs will jump to more than 5% (for the best customers), and all mortgage rates will augment 每 more for variables than long-term fixed, as the yield curve flattens.

The major thing you need to know about is the benchmark Bank of Canada mortgage stress test rate. It sits at 5.34% and would swell to more than 6.5% in little more than a year if these events come to pass (which everyone says will). Just 15 months ago any schmuck could wander into a chartered bank, flirt with TNL@TB and nab a fiver at little more than 2% – no stress test whatsoever if Mom had forked over enough for a 20% down payment.

The impact of a tripling of rates (effectively) in that period of time is, well, unknown 每 since it hasn*t happened before. But don*t expect ponies and puppies. Already B20 has knocked tens of thousands of buyers out of the market, and caused low-end property prices to swell, since that*s all the moisters can now afford. In turn this has depressed detached sales 每 seriously. Look at Van, for example 每 the number of detached houses trading in May crashed by 40% (June numbers are not yet out, but will be similar). This is what happens when people can*t sell, or find it impossible to move up.

But, I hear you cry, what about the Trumpster? Won*t this trade war thing terrify central bankers, making them retreat like manhood in a cold lake?

Nope, claim the economists. Forgeddaboutit.

※There is the risk of going at a slower pace should NAFTA developments take a much deeper turn for the worse than has been apparent to date or anticipated,§ says Scotia, ※but there is also the opposite risk of overshooting the long-run neutral rate if this cycle*s wage and price pressures continue to evolve in a fashion that further jeopardizes the BoC*s inflation mandate.§

Translation: sure, Trump can be a dick and cause trade chaos (before Congress reigns him in and the mid-terms whomp his butt), but what the central bank really fears is too much inflation 每 caused by new tariffs, lots of fresh jobs, higher commodity prices, minimum wage increases and rising incomes. The US is virile, our economy is strong and the global one is expanding faster than at any time in almost a decade. Most central banks 每 even the slap-happy one in Europe 每 are now dialing back on stimulus. The Bank of Canada cannot risk falling behind, and already inflation is nearing the upper end of its target range.

And this: ※We believe risks such as a trade shock would have to be quite severe in order to lead the BoC to allow inflationary pressures to build without tightening policy. At this point in time we don*t judge the risk of the abrogation of the NAFTA agreement as a serious one.§

Monetary policy may not be sexy, but there’s no one single thing which will affect the value of your property as much as this. Real estate soared when rates sank. That ship has sailed.

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Everybody knows /c02/2018/07/02/everybody-knows/#comments Mon, 02 Jul 2018 19:57:52 +0000 /c02/?p=14186

The bulk of people buying million-dollar properties in Toronto and Vancouver carry debts equal to, or exceeding, 450% of what they earn. Gulp. That should answer the question oft posed: how can the average income-earner afford the average house?

Answer: they can*t. So the average family has borrowed excessively, or cashed in existing real estate and added in more mortgage financing, to move up the property ladder. This is why a household in Van with the median income of $80,000 can*t afford a $1.6 million house without existing savings, equity or a rampant disregard for debt. It*s also why BC has a negative personal savings rate. Last year the Bank of Canada crunched the numbers and concluded 8% of the national population 每 those with borrowings of more than four times income 每 were at high risk if interest rates ever increased. Which they are.

By the way, when 8% of Americans became over-extended and wobbly, the entire market grew unstable. Then crashed.

The housing market being what it is, each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city. So when some fools decide to borrow a huge amount and spend their brains out, it drives the entire thing skyward. This is why prices escalate 每 a cycle of moronic behaviour, cheap credit and FOMO.

However, most folks don*t see it that way, because they don*t want to. It*s easier and more comforting to blame others for a situation which is now largely untenable. So, enter the bad guys. They are (alternatively) Chinese dudes, temporary foreign workers, Albertans (or anyone with truck nuts), gangs or money launderers.

Lately it*s the latter who are much in vogue following a sketchy report done for the BC Dippers alleging $100 million in dirty money was laundered through BC casinos over the past decade. Wow. A hundred mill. Sounds like a lot. And so everyone thinks (a) it all went into residential real estate and (b) that*s why houses cost a pile.

But, alas, it*s a myth.

Over the past ten years there have been $1 trillion worth of residential real estate transactions in BC, most of them being in YVR and the LM. Because math is hard, let*s spell out what $100 million is as a component of one trillion dollars: 0.01%. Yup, statistically insignificant. Even if were all concentrated in Vancouver, still meaningless. Last year $37.8 billion worth of properties sold in that one city alone. So, if $10 million of that came from money laundering, it would account for ten properties, or 0.029% of all deals.

But, ask the average dude if dirty money/gangs/casinos is responsible for the stupid price of a house in Kits, and the answer will be the same, ten times out of ten. ※Plus the Chinese,§ he*ll tell you, nodding. ※Everybody knows that.§

Well, almost everyone. Last week CMHC released an interesting study on market perceptions. What impact, it asked, do you think foreign buyers are having? In Vancouver 68% answered ※a lot of influence§ while in Toronto 48% agreed foreigners are driving up house prices.

But there is zero statistical evidence to support this. Every study has found remarkably similar totals for foreign buying of domestic real estate in these two cities. StatsCan numbers are typical: 4.8% of transactions in Vancouver and 3.4% in Toronto.

“What is striking,§ says the crown corporation, ※is the significant gap between perceptions of the public and available data, so much so that the perception of non-resident ownership takes centre stage when discussing the drivers of price growth.§ You bet. And it*s safe to say the comment section will soon be filled with angry posts from people alleging foreigners hide their buying through corps, kids or casinos. No matter what facts are trotted out, people believe what people believe. Ask the North Koreans.

By the way, CMHC also found that almost half of all buyers in Vancouver and Toronto end up spending more on their home than they budgeted for. Because, of course, some money-laundering Asian predator is just around the corner ready to offer cash.

Without a doubt, the perception of foreign buyers, illicit funds and offbook deals has done much to turn housing booms into gaseous, bloated and unstable bubbles. That*s been fed relentlessly by individual realtors and local media, when the real culprits have been cheap rates, lax lending, financial illiteracy and buckets of house lust. Now we*re pickled in debt with an extreme home ownership rate, more vulnerable than ever to higher money costs, trade wars, economic torpor or Trump.

Ground zero, as you might imagine, will be Vancouver. Governments there have the bulk of people believing they can chase away foreigners, Albertans, and other cheaters while taxing the rich as never before.

They won*t. But all politicians need to do is change perceptions. Then the correction will be epic.

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Into the wind /c02/2018/07/01/into-the-wind/#comments Sun, 01 Jul 2018 20:41:56 +0000 /c02/?p=14180 bóng đá trực tuyến

Apparently there are a few cons left. In his first two days on the job, Premier Doug Ford did two things: freeze the Ontario civil service (appropriate for a weekend of 40-degree heat) and punt the Lib plan to give no-cost drugs to all kiddies. That latter freebie was worth at least $500 million a year and would have made prescriptions gratis to about 50% of the population.

So, the polarization of Canadian politics has begun. After an inexorable shift left for a few years, leading to such weird outcomes as an NDP government in red-meat Alberta and big public support in BC for Dippers who are wildly increasing taxes (and spending), the country*s largest province has lurched right. Elected is a man who campaigned on slogans (not policy) and sure sounded like a maple-coated Trump.

The implications seem profound for the federal contest set for a year this autumn. Canada*s national T2 government, as you know, increased taxes on the successful, slashed TFSA limits, increased the civil service bigly and will add $100 billion to the federal debt within four years. The Libs downed the Cons in the last election by telling voters there would be brief deficits before the budget balanced itself. Instead, spending is up, deficits have swollen, relations with our biggest trading partner suck and our currency has sagged. But, we can get wasted. Weed*s coming.

On the immediate horizon are a few things that will affect your finances. Interest rates go up again the week after next. That should shore the dollar for a day or two, but it will also raise the stress test mortgage rate to about 5.6% – just at a time the real estate market is entering the mother of all summer slumps. Then there*s trade. Effective this Canada Day, we slapped new duties on a mess of US imports in retaliation for the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. There*s more to come, too.

The betting is Trump will, in fact, impose his 25% tax on maple-made cars, leading to serious uncertainty for 120,000 sector workers, most of them in the southern end of Ford Nation. As for NAFTA, it now looks like no agreement will be forthcoming until (at least) after the US mid-term elections in November. If Republicans hold their ground, we*re probably doomed. If the Dems ride an anti-orange wave, NAFTA might succeed. But, of course, with socialists about to seize Mexico (the election is this weekend), the White House might well just cut off talks entirely with that country. Conclusion: chaos and confusion. Everything could change with one Tweet.

In short, none of this is good for housing. Mortgage rates will be rising over the next year as the bond market reacts to a series of increases by the Fed, several of them echoed by our central bank. The stress test rate will certainly be over 6% by this time next year, and already B20 has had a debilitating impact on sales. More coming.

Trade talks, disputes, wars and spats may seem erudite and distant, but that*ll change in a hurry when all the crap in Wal-Mart costs more, cars are pricier or your town*s hit with an auto parts plant closure. Already household debt levels are crimping retail sales. In an economy 70% dependent on consumer spending (and real estate), this is meaningful. It means (maybe) recession 每 something that wouldn’t be a surprise if the trade tide turns more against us. So long as the Canadian prime minister is called &weak* and &dishonest* by the American president, and takes it, more grief probably lies ahead.

So, polarization. The left-right divide that has cleaved America may widen here, as Canadians do what*s only reasonable and vote in their own naked self-interest.

Well, I*m doing my part to bind this great and perplexed nation of beavers, moose, worried wrinklies and misguided moisters. Last Canada Day a giant flag that once flew atop the Peace Tower was nailed across the bosom of my Belfountain General Store, north of the Big Smoke. This year, it swelled with off-ocean gusts on the face of the stone fortress the Bank of Montreal abandoned, and I scooped for an outrageous office in Lunenburg. The next stop is BC. Once it*s safe, of course.

Happy Canada Day, dogs.

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